(disclaimer: this is generated by AI.. but hey, it seems like it could be useful to others; I do not know enough to know what is accurate here)
Mikheil Kavelashvili was elected as the new president of Georgia on December 14, 2024 by an electoral college dominated by the ruling Georgian Dream party. Kavelashvili is a former professional football player who played for Manchester City and other clubs in Europe. He is known for his anti-Western views and opposition to LGBTQ rights, and he has strong ties to Russia.
Kavelashvili’s election comes amid a period of political turmoil in Georgia. The Georgian Dream party, which has been in power since 2012, has been accused of backsliding on democracy and moving the country closer to Russia. The opposition, which has denounced Kavelashvili’s election as “illegitimate”, claims that the Georgian Dream rigged the October 2024 parliamentary election and is boycotting the parliament. The opposition says that the sitting president, Salome Zourabichvili, remains the country’s only legitimate leader.
The Footballer
Despite his football career in the West, Kavelashvili is known for his anti-Western views. He is a hardline critic of the West and has made claims that Western intelligence agencies are trying to push Georgia into a war with Russia.
Kavelashvili’s election has been widely criticized, with many, including a member of the European Parliament, calling the process a “farce”. His lack of higher education has also been noted as a cause for concern.
While Kavelashvili’s athletic background might have contributed to his name recognition, it appears to have little bearing on his approach to governing or his political ideology. Instead, his pro-Russian stance has raised concerns among Western governments and organizations about the future of Georgia’s relationship with the West.
Kavelashvili and Zourabishvili
Zourabichvili, who is pro-EU and at odds with Georgian Dream, has refused to step down and has demanded new parliamentary elections. Zourabishvili has the support of protesters, who see her as representing Georgia’s European aspirations. She has declared the newly elected parliament and government “illegitimate” because they did not wait for a court decision on her bid to annul the October election results before taking office.
Constitutional law experts have stated that the vote for Kavelashvili is “illegitimate” for the same reason—the new parliament should not have been able to vote on anything until after the court ruled on the results of the October election. One expert, Vakhtang Khmaladze, who is an author of Georgia’s constitution, has argued that all decisions by the new parliament are void.
It remains unclear how the Georgian government will react to Zourabichvili’s refusal to step down after Kavelashvili is inaugurated on December 29. Protesters have expressed willingness to defend her if the government tries to evict her from the presidential palace.
Western governments and organizations have expressed concerns about Georgia’s democratic backsliding. The European Union granted Georgia candidate status in 2023 but put it on hold in 2024 after the Georgian Dream government approved a “foreign agent law”. The European Parliament has called on the European Commission to impose sanctions on Georgian Dream officials. French President Emmanuel Macron has condemned the “intimidation” of civil society and police violence “against peaceful demonstrators and journalists” in Georgia, and has stated that “the relationship between the European Union and Georgia would necessarily be affected”. The United States has imposed visa bans on about 20 Georgian officials, including ministers and parliamentarians, for “undermining democracy in Georgia”. The US has also threatened further sanctions against Georgian Dream officials.
There are concerns that Georgia’s turn away from the West could lead to an increase in Russian influence in the country. After the Rose Revolution, the Georgian government, led by Mikheil Saakashvili, made allying Georgia closely with the West and joining NATO a top priority. This angered Russia, which sees Georgia as part of its sphere of influence. Some commentators believe that the Georgian Dream party is hedging between the EU and Russia. This is a risky strategy, as Russia has multiple levers of power in Georgia and could punish the country if it moves too close to the West.
The situation in Georgia is complex and uncertain. It is unclear how the constitutional crisis will be resolved, or what the long-term implications of Kavelashvili’s presidency will be for Georgia’s relationship with the West and Russia.
Escalating tensions
Kavelashvili’s far-right, pro-Russian views put him at odds with Georgia’s pro-EU constitution and the aspirations of many Georgians who see their future in Europe. His election has sparked protests and accusations of election rigging and backsliding on democracy by the ruling Georgian Dream party.
Kavelashvili’s anti-Western rhetoric, particularly his allegations that Western intelligence agencies are trying to force Georgia into a war with Russia, will likely further strain relations with Western governments. These tensions are already high due to the Georgian Dream government’s crackdown on pro-EU protests, its adoption of a “foreign agent law”, and its decision to postpone EU accession talks until 2028. The EU has put Georgia’s candidate status on hold, and the US has threatened sanctions against Georgian Dream officials.
Kavelashvili’s election will also likely exacerbate political polarization within Georgia, as he has no support from the opposition, which views his election as illegitimate. The opposition, which boycotted the parliamentary vote for Kavelashvili, has pledged to continue to protest and defend the sitting president, Salome Zourabichvili, who has refused to step down. The current situation represents an “unprecedented constitutional crisis” for Georgia.
Kavelashvili’s stance on Russia will be closely watched. While the Georgian Dream party insists that they will restart EU accession talks, they have also indicated that this will only happen “with dignity and justice and without blackmail”. The party is likely counting on support from allies in the EU, such as Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, to block any sanctions. Some commentators believe that the Georgian Dream party is hedging between the EU and Russia, which is a risky strategy, as Russia could punish Georgia if it moves too close to the West. Kavelashvili’s presidency adds another layer of complexity to this delicate balancing act and could further tilt Georgia toward Russia, thereby escalating tensions with the West.
Georgia’s place in the region
Relations with Russia have been particularly strained since Georgia’s independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. Russia’s support for the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which Georgia considers to be under Russian occupation, has been a major source of tension. Georgia sees Russia as a threat to its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Russia, on the other hand, views Georgia’s pro-Western orientation, particularly its aspirations to join NATO, as a threat to its own security interests.
Georgia’s relationship with Turkey is generally positive, characterized by a strategic partnership. Turkey is Georgia’s largest trading partner after the EU, and the two countries cooperate on major energy projects, such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and the Southern Gas Corridor. Turkey has maintained a low-key approach to Georgia, prioritizing stability regardless of the government in power.
Relations with neighboring EU Member States, Romania and Bulgaria, are good with a particular focus on connectivity in the Black Sea region. Romania and Bulgaria have been strong supporters of Georgia’s aspirations to join the EU. Georgia has also strengthened its engagement with other enlargement countries in the region, including Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia.
Georgia actively participates in regional cooperation platforms, including the Eastern Partnership, the Central European Initiative, the Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation, the Organisation for Democracy and Economic Development (GUAM), the Southeast European Cooperation Process, and the Regional Cooperation Council.
However, Georgia’s foreign policy alignment with the EU has been declining, particularly with regard to sanctions against Russia, Belarus, and Iran. This has raised concerns in the EU about Georgia’s commitment to European values and its reliability as a partner. The EU has expressed concerns about democratic backsliding in Georgia and has called for reforms.
Georgia’s decision not to align with EU sanctions against Russia has contributed to the decline in Georgia’s alignment rate with the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy to a low 49%. Georgia has also increased direct flights to Russia. These actions have raised concerns among Western governments and organizations about the possibility of increased Russian influence in the country. Some commentators believe that the ruling Georgian Dream party is trying to balance its relations between the EU and Russia, which is a risky strategy.
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